{"id":3134,"date":"2026-06-09T10:07:46","date_gmt":"2026-06-09T14:07:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/council.nyc.gov\/press\/?p=3134"},"modified":"2026-06-09T10:07:46","modified_gmt":"2026-06-09T14:07:46","slug":"nyc-councils-latest-economic-forecast-projects-nearly-2-billion-more-in-tax-revenue-than-mayors-office-of-management-and-budget-in-fiscal-years-2026-and-2027","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/council.nyc.gov\/press\/2026\/06\/09\/3134\/","title":{"rendered":"NYC Council\u2019s Latest Economic Forecast Projects Nearly $2 Billion More in Tax Revenue than Mayor\u2019s Office of Management and Budget in Fiscal Years 2026 and 2027"},"content":{"rendered":"

Driven by stronger-than-expected collections in personal income and business taxes, stronger outlook enables City to fund major budget priorities for New Yorkers while bolstering reserves<\/em><\/p>\n

NEW YORK, NY \u2013 <\/strong>The New York City Council on Tuesday released its June 2026 Economic and Tax Revenue Forecast<\/a>, which estimates nearly $2 billion more in tax revenue for Fiscal Years (FY) 2026 and 2027 combined than projected by the Mayor\u2019s Office of Management and Budget (OMB). The forecast, which estimates an additional $1.5 billion in collections in FY 2027 alone, was released on the second-to-last day of Executive Budget hearings for FY 2027 held by the Council. The updated forecast was driven by stronger-than-expected collections in personal income and business taxes, and represents an improved outlook compared to the last forecast issued in March<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Council expects tax revenue to grow at an average rate of 4.3% annually through FY 2030, a projection that is higher than its previous forecast and <\/a>OMB\u2019s expectations. Robust aggregate wage growth, higher Wall Street bonuses along with capital gains realization, and recent economic and collections data contributed to the Council\u2019s improved outlook. However, despite improvements, this growth is still lower than the 5.5% annual average tax revenue growth New York City experienced between FYs 2010 and 2019.<\/p>\n

The Council\u2019s forecast uses data from May and is more recent than OMB\u2019s latest revenue estimates, which were based on data as of April. The full economic forecast report can be found here<\/a>. The Council\u2019s second-to-last Executive Budget hearing will be livestreamed here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cFrom the beginning of the budget process, the Council has maintained a measured and consistent view of the City’s fiscal outlook, prioritizing the identification of savings, efficiencies and revenue generators as ways to bridge potential budget gaps,\u201d said Speaker Julie Menin.<\/strong> \u201cThis updated forecast confirms the overall resilience of the city\u2019s economy and provides an opportunity to more fully fund priorities that address the affordability crisis, improve quality of life, and support working families. Just as importantly, it allows us to continue building reserves and protecting the City’s long-term fiscal health. We can invest in New Yorkers today while planning responsibly for tomorrow.\u201d<\/p>\n

With nearly $2 billion in additional tax revenues projected over FYs 2026 and 2027, the Council believes there is sufficient revenue to set aside some of those funds into reserves, while responsibly funding its top budget priorities, including greater investments for college savings accounts through NYC Kids RISE<\/a>, for the Department of Consumer and Worker Protection<\/a> to support its expanded responsibilities, additional personnel to clean up and improve city parks<\/a>, expanding the Fair Fares discount transit program, providing greater support to cultural institutions, and adding a fifth firefighter<\/a> for dozens of engine companies. More funds for programs to<\/a> financially support homeowners<\/a> and provide services to help older adults<\/a> through the Department for the Aging will also be sought. Recognizing greater than usual uncertainty in the economy, the Council is also calling for a meaningful portion of the nearly $2 billion to be set aside as the first deposit into the City\u2019s Rainy Day reserves since 2021.<\/p>\n

The Council\u2019s tax revenue forecasts have consistently been closest to predicting the actual collections compared to OMB and other monitors, according to an analysis measuring the variance between pre-fiscal year revenue projections and actual collections at the close of each fiscal year. A prior analysis conducted by the City Comptroller\u2019s office in 2024<\/a> had similar findings, showing the Council\u2019s forecast with lowest variance, using a different methodology reviewing forecasters\u2019 projections for FY 2024 revenues measured in early 2020 and early 2024.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Council’s forecast provides a clearer picture of the resources available to meet the needs of New Yorkers and invest in the future of our city,\u201d said Deputy Speaker Dr. Nantasha Williams.<\/strong> \u201cStronger revenue projections should be matched by thoughtful investments that strengthen neighborhoods, support working families, and ensure residents have access to the opportunities and services they need to thrive. Investments in libraries, cultural institutions, youth programs, homeowner supports, services for older adults, and neighborhood infrastructure are investments in the long-term health of our communities. While economic indicators may show growth, many New Yorkers continue to face challenges related to affordability, economic mobility, and access to opportunity. Strategic investments in these institutions help ensure that residents have the tools, support, and resources necessary to participate in the city’s success and build stability for themselves and their families. The Council remains focused on ensuring that the benefits of New York City’s economic growth are reflected in the daily lives of residents across all five boroughs.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Council\u2019s latest forecast, which projects an additional $1.7 billion in tax revenue, highlights the importance of responsible fiscal stewardship as New Yorkers continue to face an affordability crisis,\u201d said Council Member Linda Lee, Chair of the Committee on Finance<\/strong>. \u201cThroughout the budget process, the Council has remained committed to identifying savings and revenue opportunities that allow us to maintain the essential services New Yorkers rely on while safeguarding the city\u2019s long-term fiscal health and avoiding significant property tax increases. With revenues now projected to grow by 4 percent annually through FY 2030, this outlook reflects the resilience of our city\u2019s economy and provides an opportunity to protect critical investments and services that support communities across the five boroughs.\u201d<\/p>\n

The national economy continues to expand, with real gross domestic product (GDP) rising 1.6% in the first quarter of 2026. Resilient consumer spending, especially by high-income households, and business investments in artificial intelligence (AI) and technology, have contributed to positive economic growth. However, lower-income households continue to face pressure from inflation, suggesting ongoing one-sided growth. The Council anticipates economic activity to expand at a 2% pace through the forecast period. The U.S. labor market demonstrated continued resilience in May despite inflationary pressures, with nonfarm payroll employment increasing by 172,000 jobs, while upward revisions totaling 93,000 jobs to March and April reinforced Council’s projections of steady growth.<\/p>\n

Job growth in the city\u2019s economy has improved to a 0.8% annual rate in April, but remains slower compared to the 2% historical average growth. The major driver of employment growth in the city continues to be in the healthcare and social assistance subsectors, which grew at 2.2%. The financial sector also saw moderate growth of 1.7%. Despite gradual growth in the City\u2019s employment, average wages paid in the city grew by a robust 6.6% in 2025, with the average wages of the securities industry going up by 11% \u2014 continuing to support added strength in personal income taxes.<\/p>\n

The Council\u2019s forecast projects the City\u2019s employment to start rebounding in 2027. Overall, business services and other sectors are expected to improve as the national economy expands. However, job growth is still anticipated to be lackluster through 2030.<\/p>\n

New York City\u2019s real estate market continues to improve. Manhattan office vacancies are expected to gradually decline, and Class A office vacancies are reaching back to pre-pandemic levels due to recent activity from AI firms driving up commercial leasing activity.<\/p>\n

“This updated revenue forecast means the Council can put an additional $2 billion to work for all New Yorkers,\u201d said Majority Leader Shaun Abreu<\/strong>. \u201cThrough investments like making the Fair Fares program free for everyone who\u2019s eligible, we can bolster and expand the essential services that families rely on to build a life in our city. The forecast reflects our economy\u2019s resiliency, and the Council will ensure the benefits of that growth support the New Yorkers that power it.”<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Council\u2019s latest economic forecast shows that New York City\u2019s economy remains resilient and continues to generate stronger-than-expected tax revenues,\u201d said Deputy Leader Sandra Ung<\/strong>. \u201cAt the same time, we cannot lose sight of the fact that many New Yorkers are still struggling with the everyday realities of rising prices and the lingering effects of inflation. These additional resources present an opportunity and a responsibility for us to invest in the services and programs that residents rely on every day. As we continue to negotiate the budget under the leadership of Speaker Menin, the City Council will work to ensure this stronger fiscal outlook translates into a commitment to the people we serve, ensuring that every New Yorker, regardless of income level, benefits from the city\u2019s economic growth.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cWith the budget coming down to the wire, I am proud that the Council, led by our Speaker, Julie Menin, has stood firm in its core principles, fighting for a truly balanced budget \u2014 one that represents all 51 Council districts,\u201d said Deputy Leader Chris Banks.<\/strong> \u201cFrom the start of this fiscal year, Speaker Menin made it clear that we would push for the resources needed to make New York City more affordable for all, not just a select few. That includes protecting and preserving Section 9 housing, ensuring access to clean and safe parks, and making sure our communities have the support they need to thrive. As we wind down, we remain committed to delivering a budget that reflects our values \u2014 from East New York to the Upper West Side\u2014 equity, affordability, and opportunity, and that meets the needs of every New Yorker.”<\/p>\n

\u201cOur city is facing an affordability crisis\u2014 with everyday costs rising because the federal government is slashing services, increasing the cost of goods with tariffs, and favoring billionaires over working families,\u201d said Council Member Shekar Krishnan<\/strong>. \u201cWith more revenue forecasted, the City Council will continue to fight for job stability for our parks workers, increased funding for DCWP so they can enforce my legislation to protect the jobs of Uber and Lyft drivers, and to make childcare more affordable. I\u2019m thankful for Speaker Menin, Finance Chair Lee, and Mayor Mamdani for prioritizing New York City families.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Council’s updated forecast reflects the continued strength of New York City’s economy and provides greater confidence as we work toward a final budget that delivers for New Yorkers,\u201d said Council Member Kevin C. Riley<\/strong>. \u201cWith nearly $2 billion in additional projected revenue across Fiscal Years 2026 and 2027, we have an opportunity to strengthen the city’s long-term fiscal position by building reserves and preparing for future uncertainty, while making strategic investments that address affordability, improve quality of life, and support working families. I thank Speaker Julie Menin, Finance Committee Chair Linda Lee, and the Council’s Finance Division for their leadership throughout this process. This forecast reinforces that fiscal responsibility and meaningful investments in our communities can go hand in hand.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThese additional revenues give our city an opportunity to strengthen the services New Yorkers rely on every day, from schools, parks, and libraries to sanitation and programs that support working and middle-class families,\u201d said Council Member Eric Dinowitz<\/strong>. \u201cAs budget negotiations continue, we must make thoughtful investments that address affordability, improve quality of life, and respond to the needs of communities across our city, while also maintaining the fiscal discipline necessary to prepare for future economic uncertainty.\u201d<\/p>\n

###<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Driven by stronger-than-expected collections in personal income and business taxes, stronger outlook enables City to fund major budget priorities for New Yorkers while bolstering reserves<\/em><\/p>\n

NEW YORK, NY \u2013 <\/strong>The New York City Council on Tuesday released its June 2026 Economic and Tax Revenue Forecast<\/a>, which estimates nearly $2 billion more in tax revenue for Fiscal Years (FY) 2026 and 2027 combined than projected by the Mayor\u2019s Office of Management and Budget (OMB).<\/p>\n

…<\/p>\n

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