{"id":1290,"date":"2018-03-01T16:24:39","date_gmt":"2018-03-01T16:24:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/council.nyc.gov\/budget\/?page_id=1290"},"modified":"2018-03-23T22:00:58","modified_gmt":"2018-03-23T22:00:58","slug":"economic_revenue_forecast_fy_preliminary_budget","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/council.nyc.gov\/budget\/economic_revenue_forecast_fy_preliminary_budget\/","title":{"rendered":"Economy and Revenue Forecast for the FY 2019 Preliminary Budget"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Economic and Revenue Forecast for the Fiscal 2019 Preliminary Report addresses the City Council Finance Division\u2019s economic and tax revenue forecast, and provides a snapshot of the City\u2019s economy and the revenue budget. <a href=\"https:\/\/council.nyc.gov\/budget\/news\/wds-slider\/preview\/\">The Committee on Finance\u2019s hearing on the Preliminary Budget for Fiscal 2019<\/a> is the Council\u2019s first opportunity to examine the Administration\u2019s proposals and estimates of expected revenues.<\/p>\n<h3> National Economy <\/h3>\n<div class=\"row\">\n<div class=\"columns large-5\">\n<p>    Strong global demand and a falling dollar is fueling exports and capital investment. This international trade is powering the US economy, which grew at a 2.6 percent rate in the between October and December of 2017. The strengthening economy also helps push unemployment down to the lowest level since the 2008 recession.<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"columns large-4\">\n<div align = \"center\">\n<div class=\"callout\">\n        <strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<div style=\"color:#82C91E\">\n          <i class=\"fa fa-arrow-circle-up fa-4x \" ><\/i>\n        <\/div>\n<p>        Employment 1.5%<\/p>\n<div style=\"color:#82C91E\">\n          <i class=\"fa fa-dollar fa-4x \" ><\/i>\n        <\/div>\n<p>        Median Income $59,039\n      <\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"columns large-3\">\n<p>    <a class=\"button expanded\" href=\"https:\/\/council.nyc.gov\/budget\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/54\/2018\/03\/Economy-and-Revenue-Forecast-2-26-corrected.docx\" style=\"margin-bottom:0;\">Download the Full Report<\/a><br \/>\n    <br \/>\n    <a class=\"button expanded\" href=\"https:\/\/council.nyc.gov\/budget\/how-nycs-budget-works\/\" style=\"margin-bottom:0;\">Learn more about how the budget works&hellip;<\/a>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"row\">\n<div class=\"columns large-6\">\n    <em>Change in National Real GDP, Real<\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"flex-video\" style=\"padding-bottom:60%;\">\n      <iframe src=\"https:\/\/newyorkcitycouncil.github.io\/datavis\/templates\/line4\/\"  frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n    <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"columns large-6\">\n    <em>National Unemployment<\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"flex-video\" style=\"padding-bottom:60%;\">\n      <iframe src=\"https:\/\/newyorkcitycouncil.github.io\/datavis\/templates\/line5\/\"  frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n    <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<hr>\n<div class=\"row\">\n<div class=\"columns large-8\">\n<h3> City Economy <\/h3>\n<p>The labor market is tight, with low unemployment and a historically high labor force participation rate. In this context, employment growth is expected to slow, but wage growth is increasingly widespread. Recent increases in the average wage were also aided by hikes in Wall Street bonuses and the higher minimum wage mandated by the State.\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"columns large-4\">\n<div align = \"center\">\n<div class=\"callout\">\n        <strong>New York City<\/strong><\/p>\n<div style=\"color:#82C91E\">\n          <i class=\"fa fa-arrow-circle-up fa-4x \" ><\/i>\n        <\/div>\n<p>        Employment 1.7%<\/p>\n<div style=\"color:#82C91E\">\n          <i class=\"fa fa-dollar fa-4x \" ><\/i>\n        <\/div>\n<p>        Median Income $58,275\n      <\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"row\">\n<div class=\"columns large-6\">\n    <em>Change in New York City Real GCP, Real<\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"flex-video\" style=\"padding-bottom:60%;\">\n      <iframe src=\"https:\/\/newyorkcitycouncil.github.io\/datavis\/templates\/line6\/index.html\"  frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n    <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"columns large-6\">\n    <em>New York City Unemployment<\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"flex-video\" style=\"padding-bottom:60%;\">\n      <iframe src=\"https:\/\/newyorkcitycouncil.github.io\/datavis\/templates\/line7\/index.html\"  frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n    <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h3> City Employment Changes by Sector<\/h3>\n<div class=\"row\">\n<div class=\"columns large-6\">\n    <em>New York City Change in Employment in Number of Workers<\/em><br \/>\n<em>2016-2017<\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"flex-video\" style=\"padding-bottom:90%;\">\n      <iframe src=\"https:\/\/newyorkcitycouncil.github.io\/datavis\/templates\/barhorizontal15\/index.html\"  frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n    <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"columns large-6\">\n    <em>New York City Mean Wage by Sector<\/em><br \/>\n<em>2017<\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"flex-video\" style=\"padding-bottom:90%;\">\n      <iframe src=\"https:\/\/newyorkcitycouncil.github.io\/datavis\/templates\/barhorizontal16\/index.html\"  frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n    <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><small>Source: NYS Department of Labor<\/small><\/p>\n<hr>\n<div class=\"row\">\n<div class=\"columns large-4\">\n<h3>Revenue<\/h3>\n<p>The strong local economy is leading to strong returns for the personal income and unincorporated business taxes. The transaction and general corporation taxes are expected to be a drag on total collections, due to slowdowns in the real estate market and continued adjustments from recent City business tax reforms where many corporations had prepaid taxes.<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"columns large-8\">\n<div align = \"center\">\n<em>FY18-FY22 Average Annual Revenue Growth<\/em><br \/>\n<em>NYC City Council Finance Forecast<\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"flex-video\" style=\"padding-bottom:70%;\">\n      <iframe src=\"https:\/\/newyorkcitycouncil.github.io\/datavis\/templates\/barhorizontal17\/index.html\"  frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n    <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"row\">\n<div class=\"columns large-6\">\n<div align = \"center\">\n    <em>FY19 Revenues in Preliminary Budget<\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"flex-video\" style=\"padding-bottom:90%;\">\n      <iframe src=\"https:\/\/newyorkcitycouncil.github.io\/datavis\/templates\/doughnut21\/index.html\"  frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n    <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"columns large-6\">\n<div align = \"center\">\n    <em>FY19 Taxes in Preliminary Budget<\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"flex-video\" style=\"padding-bottom:90%;\">\n      <iframe src=\"https:\/\/newyorkcitycouncil.github.io\/datavis\/templates\/doughnut22\/index.html\"  frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n    <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<hr>\n<div class=\"row\">\n<div class=\"columns large-8\">\n<h3>Hardship Indicators<\/h3>\n<p>Although the labor market is tight and the recovery is finally reaching a larger share of the population, economic hardship is still widespread, and neither the rent burden nor the poverty rate have fallen to pre-recession levels in the City.\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"columns large-4\">\n<div align = \"center\">\n<div class=\"callout\">\n        <strong>New Residential Housing Units<br \/>\n          +12,985 in 2017<br \/>\n        <\/strong><\/p>\n<div style=\"color:#82C91E\">\n          <i class=\"fa fa-home fa-4x \" ><\/i>\n        <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"row\">\n<div class=\"columns large-6\">\n<div align = \"center\">\n    <em>Poverty Rate by Borough<\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"flex-video\" style=\"padding-bottom:90%;\">\n      <iframe src=\"https:\/\/newyorkcitycouncil.github.io\/datavis\/templates\/bar9\/index.html\"  frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n      <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"column large-6\">\n<div align = \"center\">\n<p>    <em>Rent Burden Rate, Citywide<\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"flex-video\" style=\"padding-bottom:90%;\">\n      <iframe src=\"https:\/\/newyorkcitycouncil.github.io\/datavis\/templates\/line8\/index.html\"  frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n      <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><small><br \/>\nSources: Unemployment data from BLS Current Population Survey. GDP data is from Bureau of Economic Analysis. GCP and National Employment data are from IHS Markit. National Median Income is from US Census Bureau. City median income is from American Community Survey, estimates from the 2016 1-year survey. New York City employment and average wage sector data are from NYS Department of Labor.<br \/>\nRevenue breakdowns reflect the February 2018 Financial Plan Revenue Budget.<br \/>\nPoverty by borough and rent burden data are from ACS 1-year estimates. Rent burden rate refers to the percent of renters spending more than 35 percent of their income on rent.<br \/>\nThe number for new residential units in 2017 reflects Council Finance calculations based on NYC Department of Finance FY2019 assessment roll.<br \/>\n<\/small><\/p>\n<p>Produced by the <a href=\"https:\/\/council.nyc.gov\/budget\/\">Council Finance Division<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/council.nyc.gov\/labs\/\">Council Labs<\/a> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prepared by the City Council for the <a href=http:\/\/legistar.council.nyc.gov\/MeetingDetail.aspx?ID=594635&#038;GUID=9F085F0D-2AAB-4278-B740-2F9B8D703F86&#038;Options=info&#038;Search=\"> City Council\u2019s Finance Committee hearing on the FY 2019 Preliminary Budget, March 5 2018. <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":1301,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-1290","page","type-page","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/council.nyc.gov\/budget\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1290","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/council.nyc.gov\/budget\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/council.nyc.gov\/budget\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/council.nyc.gov\/budget\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/council.nyc.gov\/budget\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1290"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/council.nyc.gov\/budget\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1290\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/council.nyc.gov\/budget\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1301"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/council.nyc.gov\/budget\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1290"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}